Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 11-D.Harty ran ob at NO 32 for 9 yards. Pass 9, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.07 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -0.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP