4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to TB 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.87 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model