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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 33

New England Patriots 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne to BAL 33 for no gain (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model