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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

BAL
43.0%
NE
57.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22
–
NE 25
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Ankle
J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Groin
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
James Proche WR Questionable Groin
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Quadricep
Damarion Williams CB Questionable Ankle
Isaiah Likely TE Questionable Groin

NE

Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb
Joshuah Bledsoe S Questionable Groin
Cody Davis S Questionable Calf
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Knee
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Back
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 37
–
NE 26

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:14 TD BAL (4:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 89-Andrews 31st career rec TD, 2nd in franchise history (Heap 41). BAL 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG NE (15:00) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 57th consecutive FG under 50 yds, new NFL record. BAL 7 – NE 3
  • Q2 06:04 TD NE (6:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-M.Jones 1st career rush TD. BAL 7 – NE 9
  • Q2 00:36 TD BAL (:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG NE (:01) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. BAL 14 – NE 13
  • Q3 12:19 TD NE (12:19) (Shotgun) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – NE 19
  • Q3 08:44 TD BAL (8:44) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 84-J.Oliver for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – NE 20
  • Q3 04:47 TD BAL (4:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-D.Duvernay for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – NE 20
  • Q3 02:38 FG BAL (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9-Tucker 50th career 50+ yard FG. BAL 31 – NE 20
  • Q4 12:45 TD NE (12:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 31 – NE 26
  • Q4 03:07 TD BAL (3:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 37 – NE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:34) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to NE 14, Center-46-N.Moore. 27-M.Bryant MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 11. 27-M.Bryant to NE 11 for no gain (43-J.Hill).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 31 for 12 yards (22-Co.Davis).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 57th consecutive FG under 50 yds, new NFL record.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:06) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to NE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 27-M.Bryant to NE 41 for 13 yards (46-N.Moore).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 73%

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne to BAL 33 for no gain (44-M.Humphrey).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at NE 44 for 43 yards (7-J.Bailey).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9-Tucker 50th career 50+ yard FG.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (13:38) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith to BAL 9 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (6:43) 11-J.Stout punts 23 yards to NE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.