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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to NE 14, Center-46-N.Moore. 27-M.Bryant MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 11. 27-M.Bryant to NE 11 for no gain (43-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP