4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 69

New England Patriots 20 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at NE 44 for 43 yards (7-J.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model