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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 63

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 31 for 12 yards (22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model