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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 8 at the 52
Baltimore Ravens 31 – New England Patriots 26
What Actually Happened
(6:43) 11-J.Stout punts 23 yards to NE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.45 EP
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.60 EP
- 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.31 EP
KICK
-1.28 EP
- 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
