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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 16

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 57th consecutive FG under 50 yds, new NFL record.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model