Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New England Patriots 3

(13:06) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to NE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 27-M.Bryant to NE 41 for 13 yards (46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model