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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.16 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP