4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CIN
53.7%
NYJ
46.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.089 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Drew Sample TE Out Knee
Germaine Pratt LB Doubtful Knee
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Groin

NYJ

Zach Wilson QB Out Knee
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Toe
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Calf
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Foot
Corey Davis WR Questionable Knee
George Fant T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
NYJ 12

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 TD CIN (9:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 34-S.Perine for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:08 FG NYJ (5:08) 6-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. CIN 7 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 01:52 FG NYJ (1:52) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. CIN 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 00:05 TD CIN (:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-L.Joyner]. CIN 13 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 07:50 FG CIN (7:50) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 05:31 FG CIN (5:31) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. Penalty on CIN-22-C.Awuzie, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 20 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 12:05 TD CIN (12:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-C.Lawson]. CIN 26 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 00:45 FG NYJ (:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. CIN 27 – NYJ 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (5:08) 6-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (1:52) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:24) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 25 for 15 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (7:50) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (5:31) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:43) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CIN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 34 for 8 yards (26-B.Echols).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:07) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to NYJ 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:59) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 17 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:40) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NYJ 43, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 10-B.Berrios to CIN 47 for 10 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (10:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 8-E.Moore (22-C.Awuzie).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (4:17) 1-J.Chase right end pushed ob at NYJ 20 for -1 yards (1-A.Gardner).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:10) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to NYJ 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-31-M.Thomas.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (10:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 23 for -9 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (92-B.Hill) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 25.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (2:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 20-Br.Hall INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at CIN 3. 30-J.Bates to CIN 4 for 1 yard.