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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to NYJ 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model