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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 41

New York Jets 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 8-E.Moore (22-C.Awuzie).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model