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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 1-J.Chase right end pushed ob at NYJ 20 for -1 yards (1-A.Gardner).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model