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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 14

New York Jets 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 23 for -9 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (92-B.Hill) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 25.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model