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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 23

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model