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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 32

New York Jets 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 6-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.63 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model