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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 47

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.00 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP