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Dallas Cowboys

2-1 HC Mike McCarthy
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New York Giants

2-1 HC Brian Daboll
Monday 2022-09-26 · 20:15 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

DAL
62.9%
NYG
37.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.259 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25 18–32
–
NYG 19 12–26
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

DAL

Jayron Kearse S Out Knee
Dak Prescott QB Out right Thumb
Connor McGovern G Out Ankle
Michael Gallup WR Questionable Knee
Quinton Bohanna DT Questionable Neck
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Illness
Dalton Schultz TE Questionable Knee

NYG

Justin Layne CB Out Concussion
Nick McCloud CB Out Hamstring
Aaron Robinson CB Out Appendix
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Doubtful Hamstring
Leonard Williams DT Doubtful Knee
Azeez Ojulari DE Questionable Calf
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 23
–
NYG 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:12 FG DAL (2:12) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:21 FG NYG (11:21) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 09:13 FG DAL (9:13) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – NYG 3
  • Q3 09:06 FG NYG (9:06) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 6 – NYG 6
  • Q3 05:41 TD NYG (5:41) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 12
  • Q3 00:32 TD DAL (:32) 21-E.Elliott right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – NYG 13
  • Q4 08:34 TD DAL (8:34) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – NYG 13
  • Q4 06:02 FG DAL (6:02) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 23 – NYG 13
  • Q4 03:42 FG NYG (3:42) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 23 – NYG 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 33%

    (12:04) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-R.James to NYG 12 for 1 yard (1-K.Joseph).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%

    (7:49) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Armstrong), Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (2:12) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (11:21) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (9:13) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:33) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to DAL 23, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 58%

    (2:38) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 40%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (9:06) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:08) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NYG 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-R.James ran ob at NYG 23 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (14:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 55%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 37 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 35 for 28 yards (6-J.Gillan).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

    (6:02) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →