4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 33

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model