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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 50

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model