4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 37 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model