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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 26

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP