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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 23 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP