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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 56

Houston Texans 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model