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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

HOU
44.2%
CHI
55.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.199 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.075 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Austin Deculus T Out Ankle
Brevin Jordan TE Out Ankle
Isaac Yiadom CB Out Thigh
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Kurt Hinish DT Questionable Foot
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Matthew Adams LB Out Hamstring
Dane Cruikshank S Out Hamstring
Ryan Griffin TE Out Achilles
Velus Jones WR Doubtful Hamstring
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Quadricep
Roquan Smith LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
CHI 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:26 FG CHI (11:26) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. HOU 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 06:53 TD CHI (6:53) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – CHI 9
  • Q1 03:45 TD HOU (3:45) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – CHI 10
  • Q2 07:37 TD HOU (7:37) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 31-D.Pierce left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – CHI 10
  • Q2 01:53 FG CHI (1:53) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. HOU 14 – CHI 13
  • Q3 11:29 FG HOU (11:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 17 – CHI 13
  • Q3 08:28 TD CHI (8:28) 71-R.Reiff reported in as eligible. 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – CHI 19
  • Q3 00:58 FG HOU (:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 20 – CHI 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. HOU 20 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%

    (11:26) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 19 for 1 yard (23-E.Murray).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:45) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:53) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.King pushed ob at CHI 41 for 31 yards (35-K.Blasingame).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 72%

    (1:53) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (11:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:38) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 29-M.Stewart right guard to HOU 49 for 3 yards (94-R.Quinn).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 30%

    (12:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CHI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

    (6:46) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 12 for no gain (35-G.Arnold).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:52) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-36-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.