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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 84

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.King pushed ob at CHI 41 for 31 yards (35-K.Blasingame).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.09 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP