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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 32

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model