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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 14 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP