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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 54

Houston Texans 17 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 29-M.Stewart right guard to HOU 49 for 3 yards (94-R.Quinn).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model