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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 5

Houston Texans 17 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP