4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 48

Houston Texans 20 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CHI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model