Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 68

Chicago Bears 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-36-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.13 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model