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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 12

Chicago Bears 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model