Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(12:37) 14-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 35 for 10 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 22-D.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model