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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

LA
61.4%
ARI
38.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.025 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.162 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Brian Allen C Out Knee
Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
Van Jefferson WR Out Knee
David Long CB Out Hamstring
Jordan Fuller S Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Rondale Moore WR Out Hamstring
Ezekiel Turner LB Out Ankle
James Conner RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
ARI 12

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG LA (9:49) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 04:06 TD LA (4:06) 10-C.Kupp left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ARI 0
  • Q2 13:28 FG LA (13:28) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 13 – ARI 0
  • Q2 01:54 FG ARI (1:54) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 13 – ARI 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 13 – ARI 6
  • Q3 05:15 FG ARI (5:15) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 13 – ARI 9
  • Q3 01:07 TD LA (1:07) 3-C.Akers left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – ARI 9
  • Q4 01:10 FG ARI (1:10) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 20 – ARI 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 3 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 43-J.Gervase to ARI 35 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer, 89-S.Anderson).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (9:49) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:02) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to LA 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 42 for 22 yards (46-A.Brewer).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:42) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 20 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (13:28) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:37) 14-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 35 for 10 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 22-D.Thompson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 30 for 10 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:11) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 41 for 2 yards (54-L.Floyd).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 32%

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-M.Brown to LA 47 for 4 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:54) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for no gain (87-J.Harris).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to ARI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 2 yards (31-R.Rochell). PENALTY on ARI-51-T.Vallejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 25 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald; 54-L.Floyd).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (5:15) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown (6-D.Kendrick).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown to LA 45 for 14 yards (6-D.Kendrick).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (1:10) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.