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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 41 for 2 yards (54-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model