4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for no gain (87-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model