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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to ARI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 2 yards (31-R.Rochell). PENALTY on ARI-51-T.Vallejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model