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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 25 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald; 54-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model