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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown to LA 45 for 14 yards (6-D.Kendrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.79 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model