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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LA 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 20 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model