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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model