4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LV
36.1%
TEN
63.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.025 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.023 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
TEN 25
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LV

Denzel Perryman LB Out Ankle
Hunter Renfrow WR Out Concussion
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Illness
Neil Farrell DT Questionable Shoulder
Andre James C Questionable Concussion
Trevon Moehrig S Questionable Hip
Bilal Nichols DE Questionable Shoulder

TEN

Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Out Neck
Ugochukwu Amadi S Out Ankle
Bud Dupree LB Out Hip
Taylor Lewan T Out Knee
Kyle Philips WR Doubtful Shoulder
Zach Cunningham LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 22
–
TEN 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 TD TEN (7:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 87-G.Swaim for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 02:22 FG LV (2:22) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – TEN 7
  • Q2 14:29 TD TEN (14:29) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – TEN 13
  • Q2 09:49 TD LV (9:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – TEN 14
  • Q2 04:57 TD TEN (4:57) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – TEN 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG TEN (:04) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. LV 10 – TEN 24
  • Q3 07:01 FG LV (7:01) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – TEN 24
  • Q4 03:33 FG LV (3:33) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – TEN 24
  • Q4 01:18 TD LV (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – TEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (2:22) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to LV 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:34) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to TEN 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 2-R.Woods to LV 49 for 21 yards (80-J.Horsted, 33-R.Teamer).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 79%

    (10:39) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins pushed ob at TEN 25 for 4 yards (21-R.McCreary).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (7:01) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 50%

    (3:05) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback. Las Vegas challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to TEN 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-10-M.Hollins.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (13:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Burks [55-C.Jones].

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (3:33) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 70 yards to LV 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-K.Cole pushed ob at LV 19 for 13 yards (42-J.Jones).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 25 for 48 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.