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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(:34) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to TEN 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 2-R.Woods to LV 49 for 21 yards (80-J.Horsted, 33-R.Teamer).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model