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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins pushed ob at TEN 25 for 4 yards (21-R.McCreary).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model