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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Burks [55-C.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model