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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.05 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP