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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.67 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model